GOLD continues its struggles with $4,200 as the Fed week kicks in
Gold treads water around $4,200 early Monday, while within the previous week’s trading range.
US Dollar holds lower ground amid looming Fed rate cut call and a cautious mood.
Gold’s daily technical setup suggests that buyers are not ready to give up yet.
Gold is trading around a flat line near the $4,200 mark, starting a crucial US Fed week on a cautious footing.
Amid sustained USD weakness and simmering geopolitical tensions between Japan and China, Gold buyers continue to provide a floor while sellers keep lurking at higher levels.
The upside remains guarded, anticipating a probable hawkish guidance from the Fed this week. The Fed is widely expected to lower the interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with the odds currently sitting close to 90%, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
The Fed’s outlook on the 2026 rate path will also hold the key, leaving Gold wavering in a tight range at the start of the week on Monday.
The recent series of unimpressive US economic data continues to favor the dovish Fed expectations.
Meanwhile, markets remain cautious after Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi reported on Sunday, Chinese fighter jets twice directed fire-control radar at its F-15 aircraft over international waters near Okinawa.On the other hand, Beijing accused Japanese jets of interrupting their air training.
Gold finds additional support from a solid growth in China’s Exports for November, with both the Yuan and USD-denominated jump reported at 5.7% and 5.9%, respectively. China is the world’s top yellow metal consumer.
In the day ahead, Gold will continue to take cues from broad market sentiment in the absence of top-tier US economic data. Geopolitical developments in Asia will also be closely monitored.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, the 21-day SMA climbs above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, with all slopes rising and price holding above them, reinforcing a bullish bias. The 21-day SMA at $4,147.93 offers nearby dynamic support, while the 50-day SMA at $4,084.46 underpins the advance. The RSI sits at 61.33, edging higher from 60.31 and signaling firm, but not overbought, momentum. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 has been surpassed, hinting the prior bearish phase is losing strength.
Upside extension faces resistance at the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16; a decisive close above this barrier would open the path toward the prior top. If buyers fail to sustain above the 61.8% marker, a pullback could revisit the 50% retracement at $4,133.50. Beneath that, trend support remains defined by rising moving averages, with the 50-day SMA cushioning the downside. Overall, momentum and trend alignment favor dips being bought while Fibonacci thresholds frame the next directional cues.
GOLD continues its struggles with $4,200 as the Fed week kicks in
Gold is trading around a flat line near the $4,200 mark, starting a crucial US Fed week on a cautious footing.
Amid sustained USD weakness and simmering geopolitical tensions between Japan and China, Gold buyers continue to provide a floor while sellers keep lurking at higher levels.
The upside remains guarded, anticipating a probable hawkish guidance from the Fed this week. The Fed is widely expected to lower the interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, with the odds currently sitting close to 90%, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
The Fed’s outlook on the 2026 rate path will also hold the key, leaving Gold wavering in a tight range at the start of the week on Monday.
The recent series of unimpressive US economic data continues to favor the dovish Fed expectations.
Meanwhile, markets remain cautious after Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi reported on Sunday, Chinese fighter jets twice directed fire-control radar at its F-15 aircraft over international waters near Okinawa.On the other hand, Beijing accused Japanese jets of interrupting their air training.
Gold finds additional support from a solid growth in China’s Exports for November, with both the Yuan and USD-denominated jump reported at 5.7% and 5.9%, respectively. China is the world’s top yellow metal consumer.
In the day ahead, Gold will continue to take cues from broad market sentiment in the absence of top-tier US economic data. Geopolitical developments in Asia will also be closely monitored.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, the 21-day SMA climbs above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, with all slopes rising and price holding above them, reinforcing a bullish bias. The 21-day SMA at $4,147.93 offers nearby dynamic support, while the 50-day SMA at $4,084.46 underpins the advance. The RSI sits at 61.33, edging higher from 60.31 and signaling firm, but not overbought, momentum. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 has been surpassed, hinting the prior bearish phase is losing strength.
Upside extension faces resistance at the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16; a decisive close above this barrier would open the path toward the prior top. If buyers fail to sustain above the 61.8% marker, a pullback could revisit the 50% retracement at $4,133.50. Beneath that, trend support remains defined by rising moving averages, with the 50-day SMA cushioning the downside. Overall, momentum and trend alignment favor dips being bought while Fibonacci thresholds frame the next directional cues.
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