GOLD down but not out as focus shifts to more US data
Gold keeps running into fresh offers at $5,100 as traders weigh the latest US jobs report.
The US Dollar meets fresh supply as USD/JPY sellers return; focus shifts to Friday’s critical inflation test.
Gold closed Wednesday below $5,100, but daily RSI backs bullish potential, with eyes on 61.8% Fibo resistance at $5,141.
Gold is back in the red near $5,050 early Thursday, having faced strong offers at around the $5,100 mark once again. Buyers keep a close eye on the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and US-Iran geopolitical developments to regain control.
Despite the pullback from the eight-day high of $5,119 set on Wednesday, Gold’s downside remains cushioned, courtesy of the renewed selling interest seen in the US Dollar .
The Greenback continues to reel from the ‘rub-off’ effect from the ongoing USD/JPY downtrend, fuelled by Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the snap elections and looming forex intervention risks.
This USD/JPY bearishness overshadows the strong January labor market report from the United States , released on Wednesday, leaving the USD broadly vulnerable.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Nonfarm Payrolls in January increased by 130,000, much higher than the estimated figure of 70k. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4% in December 2025.
The blockbuster jobs data almost priced out a March interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve , while slightly scaling back the odds for a June rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
This change in the market expectations reinforced sentiment around the narrative of higher rate for longer, lifting the USD and the two-year US Treasury bond yields at the expense of the non-yielding Gold.
However, the USD uptick quickly faded and limited the Gold retreat as markets digested the final revision to the annual NFP benchmark, which showed the economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025 instead of the previously estimated 584,000, per Reuters.
Additionally, looming tensions between the US and Iran garnered attention once again, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.
Next of note, for Gold markets, remains the US Jobless Claims data due later on Thursday, which could shed more light on the US labor market conditions.
However, Friday’s US CPI data will be the real test for Gold buyers, as the inflation report could reaffirm bets for two Fed rate cuts this year, the first potentially seen in June.
Daily technical analysis
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs above the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, with all slopes advancing and highlighting a firm bullish structure. Price holds comfortably above these gauges, and the 21-day SMA at $4,940.96 offers immediate dynamic support. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 57.99 (neutral-to-bullish), easing from recent highs yet remaining above the 50 line.
Measured from the $5,597.89 high to the $4,401.99 low, the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05 acts as nearby resistance, with the 78.6% retracement at $5,341.96 capping the next upside zone. A sustained break above the former could target the latter, while failure to advance would shift focus back to the rising 21-day SMA as the first area of support and keep the recovery contained within the broader retracement barrier.
GOLD down but not out as focus shifts to more US data
Gold is back in the red near $5,050 early Thursday, having faced strong offers at around the $5,100 mark once again. Buyers keep a close eye on the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data and US-Iran geopolitical developments to regain control.
Despite the pullback from the eight-day high of $5,119 set on Wednesday, Gold’s downside remains cushioned, courtesy of the renewed selling interest seen in the US Dollar .
The Greenback continues to reel from the ‘rub-off’ effect from the ongoing USD/JPY downtrend, fuelled by Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the snap elections and looming forex intervention risks.
This USD/JPY bearishness overshadows the strong January labor market report from the United States , released on Wednesday, leaving the USD broadly vulnerable.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Nonfarm Payrolls in January increased by 130,000, much higher than the estimated figure of 70k. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4% in December 2025.
The blockbuster jobs data almost priced out a March interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve , while slightly scaling back the odds for a June rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
This change in the market expectations reinforced sentiment around the narrative of higher rate for longer, lifting the USD and the two-year US Treasury bond yields at the expense of the non-yielding Gold.
However, the USD uptick quickly faded and limited the Gold retreat as markets digested the final revision to the annual NFP benchmark, which showed the economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025 instead of the previously estimated 584,000, per Reuters.
Additionally, looming tensions between the US and Iran garnered attention once again, keeping Gold buyers hopeful.
Next of note, for Gold markets, remains the US Jobless Claims data due later on Thursday, which could shed more light on the US labor market conditions.
However, Friday’s US CPI data will be the real test for Gold buyers, as the inflation report could reaffirm bets for two Fed rate cuts this year, the first potentially seen in June.
Daily technical analysis
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs above the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, with all slopes advancing and highlighting a firm bullish structure. Price holds comfortably above these gauges, and the 21-day SMA at $4,940.96 offers immediate dynamic support. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 57.99 (neutral-to-bullish), easing from recent highs yet remaining above the 50 line.
Measured from the $5,597.89 high to the $4,401.99 low, the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05 acts as nearby resistance, with the 78.6% retracement at $5,341.96 capping the next upside zone. A sustained break above the former could target the latter, while failure to advance would shift focus back to the rising 21-day SMA as the first area of support and keep the recovery contained within the broader retracement barrier.
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