Gold extends its range play near $5,200 early Thursday, lacking a clear directional impetus.
The US Dollar rejoices haven demand as Iran strikes tankers and vessels near the vital Strait of Hormuz.
Technically, Gold closed Tuesday above 61.8% Fibo level at $5,141; is more upside on the cards?
Gold is struggling below the $5,200 level early Thursday, facing headwinds from rising US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar as the conflict in the Middle East escalates.
The United States and Iran war shows no signs of de-escalating, with Tehran intensifying its attacks on tankers and vessels in Iraqi waters and near the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices resume their uptrend on renewed fears about supply disruption, even after the US and the IEAannounced the release of emergency oil reserves to alleviate supply concerns and counter soaring energy prices, fuelled by the Middle East conflict.
The IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its members’ strategic reserves, with the US’ share amounting to 172 million barrels.
Surging Oil prices aggravate concerns over rising inflationary pressures, lifting US Treasury bond yields across the curve alongside the US Dollar .
Higher inflation expectations fuel bets that the US Fed could keep interest rates on an extended pause this year, supporting the US Treasury bond yields and the USD at the expense of the non-yielding Gold.
The hawkish Fed expectations remained untouched even after the US CPI data released on Wednesday came in line with estimates for February. Note the inflation report doesn’t account for the oil shock tied to the Iran war, which rattled the outlook.
However, Gold has managed to find dip-buying interest at lower levels due to its inherent characteristic as a traditional store of value in times of global uncertainty and market unrest.
Looking ahead, updates on the Iran war and hawkish Fed expectations will continue to remain a drag on Gold should Oil prices stretch their upward trajectory.
Daily technical analysis
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite recent consolidation. The latest close sits just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,141.05, measured from the $4,401.99 low to the $5,597.89 high, suggesting buyers defend this pullback zone. The RSI around 54 stays above the neutral 50 line, indicating positive but moderate momentum rather than a stretched rally.
Immediate support emerges at the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05, with the 21-day SMA near $5,113 forming a secondary floor if a deeper dip unfolds. A break below there would expose the 50% retracement at $4,999.94 as the next downside level. On the upside, initial resistance aligns with the $5,263 area, just ahead of the recent swing region around $5,332, where prior supply interrupted advances. A daily close above $5,332 would reopen the path toward the $5,342 zone and, beyond that, the $5,598 high, reinforcing the prevailing bullish structure.
GOLD on slippery slope amid Oil-driven inflation risks, hawkish Fed bets
Gold is struggling below the $5,200 level early Thursday, facing headwinds from rising US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar as the conflict in the Middle East escalates.
The United States and Iran war shows no signs of de-escalating, with Tehran intensifying its attacks on tankers and vessels in Iraqi waters and near the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices resume their uptrend on renewed fears about supply disruption, even after the US and the IEAannounced the release of emergency oil reserves to alleviate supply concerns and counter soaring energy prices, fuelled by the Middle East conflict.
The IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its members’ strategic reserves, with the US’ share amounting to 172 million barrels.
Surging Oil prices aggravate concerns over rising inflationary pressures, lifting US Treasury bond yields across the curve alongside the US Dollar .
Higher inflation expectations fuel bets that the US Fed could keep interest rates on an extended pause this year, supporting the US Treasury bond yields and the USD at the expense of the non-yielding Gold.
The hawkish Fed expectations remained untouched even after the US CPI data released on Wednesday came in line with estimates for February. Note the inflation report doesn’t account for the oil shock tied to the Iran war, which rattled the outlook.
However, Gold has managed to find dip-buying interest at lower levels due to its inherent characteristic as a traditional store of value in times of global uncertainty and market unrest.
Looking ahead, updates on the Iran war and hawkish Fed expectations will continue to remain a drag on Gold should Oil prices stretch their upward trajectory.
Daily technical analysis
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite recent consolidation. The latest close sits just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,141.05, measured from the $4,401.99 low to the $5,597.89 high, suggesting buyers defend this pullback zone. The RSI around 54 stays above the neutral 50 line, indicating positive but moderate momentum rather than a stretched rally.
Immediate support emerges at the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05, with the 21-day SMA near $5,113 forming a secondary floor if a deeper dip unfolds. A break below there would expose the 50% retracement at $4,999.94 as the next downside level. On the upside, initial resistance aligns with the $5,263 area, just ahead of the recent swing region around $5,332, where prior supply interrupted advances. A daily close above $5,332 would reopen the path toward the $5,342 zone and, beyond that, the $5,598 high, reinforcing the prevailing bullish structure.
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