Acceptance above 21-day SMA at $4,065 is critical for XAU/USD buyers

• Gold extends rebound into a third straight day on Tuesday, capitalizing on Oil price pullback.
• The US Dollar hangs close to weekly highs amid US-Iran uncertainty and Fed rate hike bets.
• Gold’s recovery appears limited as an impending Bear Cross looms on the daily chart.

Gold is building on its recovery from two-week lows of $4,024 reached last Friday, extending the winning streak into a third straight day on Tuesday.

Gold is capitalizing on the ongoing pullback in Oil prices from monthly highs near $84.50. The black gold is retreating for a second day in a row on emerging signs of diplomatic efforts to ease the US-Iran conflict.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Monday that mediators had presented "proposals" to Tehran, keeping diplomacy hopes alive.

Meanwhile, speaking to CNN, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “We are receiving signals through multiple channels of Iran’s desire to negotiate, but there is a growing split within the regime."

This willingness for mediation from both sides come even as US and Iran continue to exchange military strikes, while Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade Saudi Arabia after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

Additionally, the optimism around Gold is also due to an Axios report, stating that US President Donald Trump is nearing a decision between a 10-day ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a full-scale joint campaign with Israel against Iran, with US forces massing in the region as talks continue.

But for now, the focus seems to be on diplomatic efforts, especially as the Middle East crisis is expected to feature prominently in the talks of foreign ministers from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations ⁠in Manila, Philippines.

Looking ahead, the developments around the US-Iran potential ceasefire remain a key driver for Gold traders, as the US economic docket lacks any high-impact data releases.

However, Gold’s daily technical setup continues to caution buyers as an impending Bear Cross remains in play, while the momentum stays negative.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,046.08, holding below all its major moving averages, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,063.52 forms immediate resistance just overhead, with the 50-day SMA at $4,263.77 reinforcing a broader cap on the upside. Longer-term trend metrics remain stacked above price, as the 200-day SMA at $4,495.83 and the 100-day SMA at $4,510.55 both sit well above the market, while a Relative Strength Index (14) reading near 44 suggests only modest, corrective momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

Additionally, keeping the near-term bearish outlook intact, the 100-day SMA is on the verge of crossing the 200-day SMA from above. If that happens on a daily candlestick closing basis, it would confirm a Bear Cross.