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GOLD struggles below $4,000 ahead of US sentiment data

  • Gold finds fresh demand near $3,960, stalling the retreat from record highs of $4,059 reached Wednesday.
  • US Dollar sees a profit-taking pullback amid a tepid risk tone and dovish Fed talks, ahead of sentiment data.
  • Gold is moving within the rising channel on the daily chart, with the RSI off extreme overbought conditions.

Gold is looking to build on Thursday’s late rebound as buyers aim for the key $4,000 level once again early Friday, snapping the corrective decline from lifetime highs of $4,059 set on Wednesday.

Bracing for the eighth consecutive weekly advance, Gold buyers look to resume the record-setting rally in Asian trading on Friday.

Markets remain risk-averse as the US government shutdown is seen stretching into the next week as the Senate wound up for a long weekend holiday, not back until Tuesday.

Further, declining Asian stocks and a pause in the USD upsurge also lend support to the bullion as traders digest the latest dovish commentary from Fed policymakers.

New York (NY) Fed President John Williams told the NY Times on Thursday that he supports further interest rate cuts this year, per Reuters.Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted early Friday that “the Fed is projecting additional cuts, but in risk management.”

Markets now eagerly await the release of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data for fresh policy insights and trading impetus, in the wake of delayed key statistics and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s no-show on monetary policy.

Investors also take account of the latest report carried by the NY Times, citing that the US BLS plans to publish the September CPI report despite the ongoing government shutdown.

However, the inflation data is unlikely to be released on October 15, originally scheduled.

Daily technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the 14-day RSI is off the extreme overbought zone but remains near 75.

The leading indicator suggests that buyers could regain full vigour, with a retest of the all-time high of $4,059 likely. A sustained break above that will call for a test of the $4,100 – the upper boundary of the rising channel.

To the downside, Gold needs to crack the lower boundary of the rising channel at $3,962 on a weekly candlestick closing basis to sustain the correction toward the $3,900 round figure.

The October 2 low of $3,819 will be next on sellers’ radars, where the 21-day SMA approaches.

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