GOLD retakes key $4,075 resistance ahead of Fed Minutes, NFP
Gold price rebound holds below $4,100 as sellers return early Wednesday.
US Dollar sits at weekly highs amid risk recovery, ahead of FOMC Minutes.
Gold recaptures 21-day SMA on Tuesday; the daily RSI swings back into the bullish zone.
Gold is consolidating below $4,100 in early Wednesday’s trades, as buyers take a breather after the previous solid rebound and ahead of the Minutes of the US Fed October monetary policy meeting due later in the day. The critical September NFP report for Thursday also remains on traders’ radars.
Gold staged a solid comeback on Wednesday, ending its three-day decline, as global market sell-off revived the safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value.
Concerns over the AI-driven overvaluation in the technology sector combined with dismal US jobs data triggered a risk-aversion wave across the financial markets.
Data published by the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that the number of Americans on jobless benefits surged between mid-September and mid-October. Meanwhile, A report from ADP showed private employers lost an average of 2,500 jobs a week during the four weeks ending November 1.
However, risk sentiment appears to be improving early Wednesday, putting a cap on the US Dollar upside. The USD struggles with its recent recovery, allowing Gold to head back toward the $4,100.
The next of note for Gold traders remains the Fed Minutes, which is expected to show that the Fed policymakers stay broadly divided on the rate outlook, leaning to caution on further easing, while awaiting the delayed US economic data.
The Fed Minutes could check the Gold price rebound as chances of a December rate cut remain at coin flip’s level, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Additional cues on the timing of the Fed’s next rate reduction will also be awaited from the September NFP data, with economists expecting the US economy to have added 50,000 jobs against a 22,000 job creation in August.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,074.30. The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA rise. The 21-day has flattened near price, while Gold holds above all of them, preserving a bullish bias. The RSI stands at 52.91, neutral with a slight uptick. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 38.2% retracement at $4,075.05 caps the advance. A sustained break would open the 50% retracement at $4,133.50.
Holding above the 21-day SMA at $4,048.49 would keep the near-term tone supported, while the 50-day SMA at $3,964.17 marks a lower shield. If bulls push through overhead resistance, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 emerges as the next target. Failure to clear resistance would leave the metal consolidating within the moving-average band.
GOLD retakes key $4,075 resistance ahead of Fed Minutes, NFP
Gold is consolidating below $4,100 in early Wednesday’s trades, as buyers take a breather after the previous solid rebound and ahead of the Minutes of the US Fed October monetary policy meeting due later in the day. The critical September NFP report for Thursday also remains on traders’ radars.
Gold staged a solid comeback on Wednesday, ending its three-day decline, as global market sell-off revived the safe-haven demand for the traditional store of value.
Concerns over the AI-driven overvaluation in the technology sector combined with dismal US jobs data triggered a risk-aversion wave across the financial markets.
Data published by the Labor Department on Tuesday showed that the number of Americans on jobless benefits surged between mid-September and mid-October. Meanwhile, A report from ADP showed private employers lost an average of 2,500 jobs a week during the four weeks ending November 1.
However, risk sentiment appears to be improving early Wednesday, putting a cap on the US Dollar upside. The USD struggles with its recent recovery, allowing Gold to head back toward the $4,100.
The next of note for Gold traders remains the Fed Minutes, which is expected to show that the Fed policymakers stay broadly divided on the rate outlook, leaning to caution on further easing, while awaiting the delayed US economic data.
The Fed Minutes could check the Gold price rebound as chances of a December rate cut remain at coin flip’s level, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Additional cues on the timing of the Fed’s next rate reduction will also be awaited from the September NFP data, with economists expecting the US economy to have added 50,000 jobs against a 22,000 job creation in August.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,074.30. The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA rise. The 21-day has flattened near price, while Gold holds above all of them, preserving a bullish bias. The RSI stands at 52.91, neutral with a slight uptick. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 38.2% retracement at $4,075.05 caps the advance. A sustained break would open the 50% retracement at $4,133.50.
Holding above the 21-day SMA at $4,048.49 would keep the near-term tone supported, while the 50-day SMA at $3,964.17 marks a lower shield. If bulls push through overhead resistance, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 emerges as the next target. Failure to clear resistance would leave the metal consolidating within the moving-average band.
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