GOLD’s struggle with $4,135 continues ahead of US data
Gold consolidates Monday’s rebound above $4,100 early Tuesday, looks to $4,200.
US Dollar stalls its uptrend as December Fed rate cut bets regrow ahead of US data.
Gold needs a daily closing above the 50% Fibo level of $4,134 for additional upside.
Gold is catching a breather in Tuesday’s Asian trading, after having rebounded over 1.5% on Monday. The next push higher in Gold now hinges on the upcoming delayed US data releases.
Markets eagerly await the September Retail Sales and PPI data from the US due to be released later on Tuesday, followed by the CB Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales reports, for a fresh take on the revival of expectations surrounding an interest cut by the Fed.
Markets currently price in an 81% probability of such a move, up from around 42% and 71% seen a week ago and last Friday, respectively.The recent speeches from Fed policymakers brought December Fed rate cut bets back on the table.New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that “US interest rates could fall without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market,” per Reuters.
The revival in the Fed rate cut expectations for next month powered the rebound in Gold a day ago, with traders now consolidating the upswing, digesting the developments surrounding “constructive” talks in Geneva between the West and Ukraine over the peace deal with Russia.
Looking ahead, the US economic releases and the US-Ukraine geopolitical headlines will continue to drive the Gold price action, while Fedspeak will also be closely scrutinized as it has the potential to alter the markets’ pricing of the Fed’s further monetary policy easing.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,065.29. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs advance while price holds above them, maintaining a bullish bias. The 21-day SMA has flattened and edged lower, with $4,044.66 offering nearby dynamic support. The RSI stands at 52.00 , reflecting balanced momentum after the recent rebound.
Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 38.2% retracement at $4,075.05 acts as near-term resistance, and a daily close above it would open the 50% retracement at $4,133.50. With momentum neutral and trend support intact, the path of least resistance would improve on a break of this barrier, while failure to clear it would keep gains capped and risk a return to the rising averages.
GOLD’s struggle with $4,135 continues ahead of US data
Gold is catching a breather in Tuesday’s Asian trading, after having rebounded over 1.5% on Monday. The next push higher in Gold now hinges on the upcoming delayed US data releases.
Markets eagerly await the September Retail Sales and PPI data from the US due to be released later on Tuesday, followed by the CB Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales reports, for a fresh take on the revival of expectations surrounding an interest cut by the Fed.
Markets currently price in an 81% probability of such a move, up from around 42% and 71% seen a week ago and last Friday, respectively.The recent speeches from Fed policymakers brought December Fed rate cut bets back on the table.New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that “US interest rates could fall without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market,” per Reuters.
The revival in the Fed rate cut expectations for next month powered the rebound in Gold a day ago, with traders now consolidating the upswing, digesting the developments surrounding “constructive” talks in Geneva between the West and Ukraine over the peace deal with Russia.
Looking ahead, the US economic releases and the US-Ukraine geopolitical headlines will continue to drive the Gold price action, while Fedspeak will also be closely scrutinized as it has the potential to alter the markets’ pricing of the Fed’s further monetary policy easing.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,065.29. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs advance while price holds above them, maintaining a bullish bias. The 21-day SMA has flattened and edged lower, with $4,044.66 offering nearby dynamic support. The RSI stands at 52.00 , reflecting balanced momentum after the recent rebound.
Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 38.2% retracement at $4,075.05 acts as near-term resistance, and a daily close above it would open the 50% retracement at $4,133.50. With momentum neutral and trend support intact, the path of least resistance would improve on a break of this barrier, while failure to clear it would keep gains capped and risk a return to the rising averages.
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