Focus on daily close as GOLD braces for key US data
Gold sits at six-week highs above $4,250 early Monday, looks to the US ISM PMI.
US Dollar sees a negative start to December amid growing bets for a rate cut next week.
Gold eyes a daily closing above the key $4,250 hurdle to extend the uptrend.
Gold is firming up near $4,250 early Monday, its highest level in six weeks. Gold buyers retain control at the start of a new month amid growing calls for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve as early as next week.
Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points at its December monetary policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
With a December Fed rate cut almost a done deal, the US Dollar keeps its bearish undertone intact, after having registered its worst week in four months, favoring the Gold price upside.
Concerns over the Fed’s leadership also remain a drag on the USD, as Gold optimists aim for the $4,300 threshold.Last week, Reuters reported that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was a good chance President Donald Trump would announce his pick before Christmas.
In the day ahead, all eyes will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, which could provide fresh hints on the health of the economy, following a spate of dated economic releases. The headline Manufacturing PMI is set to edge lower to 48.6 last month after October’s 48.7.
Deepening contraction in the American manufacturing sector will likely cement a December Fed rate cut, exacerbating the Greenback’s pain, while providing a fresh leg higher in the bright metal.
Later this week, a host of US statistics, including the ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims and the Core PCE Price Index, will fill in the recent data void and offer fresh directives on trading the USD and Gold heading into the Fed showdown next week.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA all rise in bullish alignment with price above them, while the 21-day SMA at $4,095.07 offers nearby dynamic support. The RSI prints at 65.97, reflecting firm upside momentum without venturing into overbought territory. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 caps the immediate advance. A decisive close above it could extend the run.
Bias stays positive as the metal holds above its rising averages, with the 50-day SMA at $4,040.77 underpinning the trend. Holding above the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 indicates the prior bearish phase is losing strength. A failure to maintain that level would risk a deeper pullback, while a break higher would keep bulls in control toward the recent high.
Focus on daily close as GOLD braces for key US data
Gold is firming up near $4,250 early Monday, its highest level in six weeks. Gold buyers retain control at the start of a new month amid growing calls for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve as early as next week.
Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points at its December monetary policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
With a December Fed rate cut almost a done deal, the US Dollar keeps its bearish undertone intact, after having registered its worst week in four months, favoring the Gold price upside.
Concerns over the Fed’s leadership also remain a drag on the USD, as Gold optimists aim for the $4,300 threshold.Last week, Reuters reported that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was a good chance President Donald Trump would announce his pick before Christmas.
In the day ahead, all eyes will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, which could provide fresh hints on the health of the economy, following a spate of dated economic releases. The headline Manufacturing PMI is set to edge lower to 48.6 last month after October’s 48.7.
Deepening contraction in the American manufacturing sector will likely cement a December Fed rate cut, exacerbating the Greenback’s pain, while providing a fresh leg higher in the bright metal.
Later this week, a host of US statistics, including the ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims and the Core PCE Price Index, will fill in the recent data void and offer fresh directives on trading the USD and Gold heading into the Fed showdown next week.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA all rise in bullish alignment with price above them, while the 21-day SMA at $4,095.07 offers nearby dynamic support. The RSI prints at 65.97, reflecting firm upside momentum without venturing into overbought territory. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 caps the immediate advance. A decisive close above it could extend the run.
Bias stays positive as the metal holds above its rising averages, with the 50-day SMA at $4,040.77 underpinning the trend. Holding above the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 indicates the prior bearish phase is losing strength. A failure to maintain that level would risk a deeper pullback, while a break higher would keep bulls in control toward the recent high.
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