Gold flirts with $4,200 as the bull-bear tug-of-war extends into early Thursday.
US Dollar rebounds alongside Treasury bond yields on profit-taking ahead of US Jobless Claims data.
Gold’s path of least resistance appears to the upside, as seen in the daily chart.
Gold has entered a phase of upside consolidation, oscillating in a familiar range around the $4,200 mark, awaiting more US jobs data for fresh hints on the US Fed interest rate outlook beyond the December monetary policy meeting.
The top-tier US ADP Employment Change and US ISM Services PMI data released on Wednesday failed to impress and served little to alter market expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed next week.
The ISM Services PMI showed little improvement in November at 52.6 versus 52.4 in October, while US private payrolls unexpectedly declined by 32K in November, following a revised 47K increase. Analysts’ estimated a job gain of 5K.
Markets continued to price in around a 90% chance that the Fed will deliver the expected 25 bps rate cut next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Dovish Fed expectations kept the downside cushioned in Gold on Wednesday, while the bullish attempts were limited by a bout of profit-taking as sellers once again lurked near the $4,250 region.
Looking ahead, with a December Fed rate cut almost certain, markets are scouting for hints on the US central bank’s easing trajectory for early 2026.
In the absence of any clarity on that front, the incoming US Jobless Claims and the sentiment on Wall Street will continue to drive Gold price action, with moves likely to b restricted.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,197.02. The 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs rise in bullish sequence, with the 21-day above the longer tenors. Price holds above all these gauges, keeping the near-term bias upward. The 21-day SMA at $4,126.81 offers nearby dynamic support. The RSI-1414 stands at 59.83, signaling firm momentum while staying short of overbought.
Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 is being reclaimed, and a sustained close above it would weaken the preceding bearish leg. Further strength would put the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 in play as resistance. Holding above the short-term average would keep the path skewed to the upside, while a rejection back below the 61.8% retracement could trigger a pullback toward the medium-term trend.
GOLD consolidates before the next leg north
Gold has entered a phase of upside consolidation, oscillating in a familiar range around the $4,200 mark, awaiting more US jobs data for fresh hints on the US Fed interest rate outlook beyond the December monetary policy meeting.
The top-tier US ADP Employment Change and US ISM Services PMI data released on Wednesday failed to impress and served little to alter market expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed next week.
The ISM Services PMI showed little improvement in November at 52.6 versus 52.4 in October, while US private payrolls unexpectedly declined by 32K in November, following a revised 47K increase. Analysts’ estimated a job gain of 5K.
Markets continued to price in around a 90% chance that the Fed will deliver the expected 25 bps rate cut next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Dovish Fed expectations kept the downside cushioned in Gold on Wednesday, while the bullish attempts were limited by a bout of profit-taking as sellers once again lurked near the $4,250 region.
Looking ahead, with a December Fed rate cut almost certain, markets are scouting for hints on the US central bank’s easing trajectory for early 2026.
In the absence of any clarity on that front, the incoming US Jobless Claims and the sentiment on Wall Street will continue to drive Gold price action, with moves likely to b restricted.
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,197.02. The 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs rise in bullish sequence, with the 21-day above the longer tenors. Price holds above all these gauges, keeping the near-term bias upward. The 21-day SMA at $4,126.81 offers nearby dynamic support. The RSI-1414 stands at 59.83, signaling firm momentum while staying short of overbought.
Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 is being reclaimed, and a sustained close above it would weaken the preceding bearish leg. Further strength would put the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 in play as resistance. Holding above the short-term average would keep the path skewed to the upside, while a rejection back below the 61.8% retracement could trigger a pullback toward the medium-term trend.
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