GOLD down but not out as key US data releases loom
Gold faces rejection at $4,500, but bullish bias remains intact on geopolitics, Fed rate cut bets.
US Dollar struggles with its recovery mode ahead of key top-tier US macro data.
Gold eyes a daily close above $4,500 to revive the record rally amid bullish daily RSI.
Gold is correcting from weekly highs of $4,500 early Wednesday as buyers take a breather after the recent relentless upsurge, backed by geopolitical flare-ups globally and increased US Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets for 2026.
Having climbed nearly 4% so far this week, traders resort to profit-taking on their Gold long positions in a readjustment move after the bright metal ran into the $4,500 barrier.
Traders also gear up for a bunch of high-impact US economic data releases due later on Wednesday, including the ADP monthly Employment Change, JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Services PMI data.
These data will be closely scrutinized to gauge the timing of the next Fed rate cut as markets continue pricing in two rate reductions for this year. Weaker-than-expected jobs and private services sector data could reaffirm bets for two cuts in the coming months, boding well for non-yielding assets like Gold at the expense of the US Dollar .
On Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.9 in December, against the forecast of 48.3, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations and keeping the recovery attempts in the USD short-lived.
The ongoing bearish undertone around the USD, combined with the escalating geopolitical tensions globally, continues to keep the positive momentum intact in Gold, despite the latest retracement.
On the latest geopolitical developments, Russia deployed submarine and other naval vessels to escort an aging oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, according to the Wall Street Journal .
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, the 21-day SMA advances above the 50-day, with price holding over both, signaling firm bullish momentum. The 21-day SMA at $4,363.88 acts as nearby dynamic support. The RSI at 63.41 remains in bullish territory without overbought readings, keeping the bias tilted to the upside.
Broader trend metrics stay supportive as the 100- and 200-day SMAs continue to climb and the market trades above them. The moving average stack shows buyers in control, with secondary support at the 50-day SMA around $4,212.04 and deeper layers near the 100-day at $3,997.46 and the 200-day at $3,653.43. As long as price holds above the 21-day SMA, the uptrend would extend, while pullbacks could be absorbed into the rising averages.
GOLD down but not out as key US data releases loom
Gold is correcting from weekly highs of $4,500 early Wednesday as buyers take a breather after the recent relentless upsurge, backed by geopolitical flare-ups globally and increased US Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets for 2026.
Having climbed nearly 4% so far this week, traders resort to profit-taking on their Gold long positions in a readjustment move after the bright metal ran into the $4,500 barrier.
Traders also gear up for a bunch of high-impact US economic data releases due later on Wednesday, including the ADP monthly Employment Change, JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Services PMI data.
These data will be closely scrutinized to gauge the timing of the next Fed rate cut as markets continue pricing in two rate reductions for this year. Weaker-than-expected jobs and private services sector data could reaffirm bets for two cuts in the coming months, boding well for non-yielding assets like Gold at the expense of the US Dollar .
On Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.9 in December, against the forecast of 48.3, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations and keeping the recovery attempts in the USD short-lived.
The ongoing bearish undertone around the USD, combined with the escalating geopolitical tensions globally, continues to keep the positive momentum intact in Gold, despite the latest retracement.
On the latest geopolitical developments, Russia deployed submarine and other naval vessels to escort an aging oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, according to the Wall Street Journal .
Daily technical analysis
In the daily chart, the 21-day SMA advances above the 50-day, with price holding over both, signaling firm bullish momentum. The 21-day SMA at $4,363.88 acts as nearby dynamic support. The RSI at 63.41 remains in bullish territory without overbought readings, keeping the bias tilted to the upside.
Broader trend metrics stay supportive as the 100- and 200-day SMAs continue to climb and the market trades above them. The moving average stack shows buyers in control, with secondary support at the 50-day SMA around $4,212.04 and deeper layers near the 100-day at $3,997.46 and the 200-day at $3,653.43. As long as price holds above the 21-day SMA, the uptrend would extend, while pullbacks could be absorbed into the rising averages.
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