GOLD looks to Fed verdict for next big break amid stalled US-Iran talks

• Gold remains confined within a familiar range near $4,700, awaiting some clarity on stalled US-Iran talks.  
• The US Dollar on a gradual recovery as markets turn cautious ahead of the Fed policy announcements on Wednesday.   
• Gold eyes a range breakout, with bearish RSI and strong resistances lurking on the daily chart.

Gold is trading listlessly near the $4,700 level in Asian trading on Tuesday, maintaining its familiar range, as focus now shifts toward the two-day Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting starting later in the day.

Gold lacks a clear directional impetus early Tuesday, with the upside attempts capped by renewed haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), as markets turn cautious amid stalled US-Iran peace talks and ahead of the Fed policy announcements.

US President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal on resolving the war with Tehran with his top national security aides on Monday, per Reuters.

Meanwhile, traders also remain sceptical ahead of key central bank monetary policy decisions this week, starting with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday. They are trying to assess the impact of the Middle East war on their inflation and interest rate outlooks.

The BoJ is widely expected to hold rates at 0.75%, deferring its rate hike plan due to the uncertainty fuelled by the Iran crisis. However, any surprises delivered by the BoJ could have a strong USD/JPY-driven ‘rub-off’ effect on the Greenback, eventually impacting the USD-sensitive Gold.

Meanwhile, the Fed is set to leave the benchmark rates unchanged, but the focus will be on the outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. The April Fed meeting seems likely to be Chair Powell’s last meeting after Republican Senator Thom Tillis dropped his block on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process on Sunday.

Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy announcements, the Senate Banking Committee is also expected to advance Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair to the full Senate, with a vote now set for 1400 GMT.

In the meantime, Gold traders will closely monitor the broader market sentiment while awaiting some clarity on the US-Iran standoff concerning the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear program.

Additionally, a round of profit-taking in the bright metal cannot be ruled out as markets reposition before the Fed verdict.

Daily technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,667.24, keeping a bearish tone as it slips below the short- and medium-term moving averages while holding above deeper structural supports. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at about $4,725 and the 100-day SMA near $4,751 sit above spot as layered resistance, reinforced by a descending trend line coming in around $4,698. The 50-day SMA, rolling over near $4,857, adds to the topside cap, while the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 44 suggests weak, consolidative momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the descending trend line around $4,698, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,725 and the 100-day SMA near $4,751, with the 50-day SMA higher up at roughly $4,857 acting as a stronger barrier if a rebound extends. On the downside, initial support emerges at the nearer rising trend line around $4,590, ahead of a secondary ascending trend line close to $4,384, with the 200-day SMA down at about $4,264 providing a more strategic floor if selling pressure resumes.