Can Fed Chair Powell rescue GOLD buyers?

• Gold licks its wounds near monthly lows of $4,555 set Tuesday as Fed policy announcements loom.   
• The US Dollar struggles following a profit-taking decline, despite the US-Iran stand-off.
• Gold defends $4,550 support amid bearish RSI, while strong resistance aligns near $4,700. A range breakout eyed?

Gold is consolidating the previous sell-off to monthly lows of $4,555 set on Tuesday, as traders turn to the sidelines and refrain from placing fresh bets ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision due later on Wednesday.

Gold came under intense selling pressure on Tuesday as the Oil price surge resumed on the back of the continued stand-off between the United States (US) and Iran, especially after US President Donald Trump expressed his displeasure with the new Iranian proposal toward ending the war.

Additionally, the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly six decades also contributed to the renewed upside in the black gold.

The uptrend in Oil keeps expectations of rising inflation alive, bolstering hawkish bets surrounding the Fed, as the US central bank’s two-day monetary meeting concludes on Wednesday. Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment.

Markets are widely expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but the message from outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely scrutinized for any hints on the possibility of a rate hike this year. Powell’s take on inflation amidst the Middle East conflict will also be dissected for future policy implications.

If Powell sticks to his patient and data-dependent rhetoric, prioritizing supporting the labor market, it would be perceived as dovish. In such a case, the US Dollar (USD) could come under intense selling pressure, fuelling a solid Gold price recovery.

Conversely, Gold could extend the recent decline if the Fed chair hints at a hawkish pivot, reviving bets for a rate hike by end-2026. Powell’s comments will hold the key as its his last post-monetary policy meeting press conference. Kevin Warsh will lead the Fed as the new Chair from May 15.

In the lead-up to the Fed event risks, fresh developments around the US-Iran stalemate, and some profit-taking sprints could influence the Gold price action.

Daily technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,596.48, keeping a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the short- and medium-term simple moving averages (SMAs). The 21-day SMA at roughly $4,726 and the 100-day SMA near $4,754 sit overhead as dynamic resistance, while the longer-term 200-day SMA around $4,270 remains a distant underlying support. A downward resistance trend line capped near $4,684 reinforces the topside constraint, and the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 40 hints at still-soft momentum, limiting recovery attempts for now.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the descending trend-line area around $4,685, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,726 and the 100-day SMA near $4,754; a sustained break above these levels would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and reopen the path toward the 50-day SMA around $4,850. On the downside, immediate focus stays on the recent pivot region around the current price, with the rising trend-line support near $4,381 next in line, ahead of the 200-day SMA clustered around $4,270, where stronger buyers could attempt to reassert the broader uptrend.