Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD sellers keep lurking at $2,530, range breakout likely?

• Gold price turns positive while above $2,500, as US PPI and Jobless Claims data loom.

• The US Dollar holds rebound alongside Treasury bond yields on fading outsized Fed rate cut bets.

• Gold price appears primed for a range breakout, with buyers still hopeful amid a bullish RSI.

Gold price is making a minor recovery attempt early Thursday, as buyers stay hopeful above $2,500. With the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data out of the way, the focus now turns toward the US Producers Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims data for fresh trading incentives.

Gold price looks to US PPI data for fresh impetus

Gold traders bide time and assess the critical US CPI inflation data released on Wednesday, which poured cold water on increased bets of an outsized interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next week.

Data published by the US Bureau of Labour Statics (BLS) showed Wednesday that the CPI rose 0.2% MoM in August, aligning with the expected 0.2% print. US August core CPI jumped 0.3% MoM vs. estimates of 0.2%. The headline annual CPI inflation ticked a tad lower to 2.5% in August while the core CPI grew 3.2% YoY versus forecasts of 3.2%.

Despite the headline annual CPI figure cooling off, the sticky monthly and yearly core figures prompted markets to rule out an outsized Fed rate cut this month. Markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) cut, compared to 71% before the data, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows.

Gold price tested the key $2,530 topside barrier before witnessing a steep decline on the sticky US inflation data, which triggered a fresh recovery rally in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields.

Despite the pullback, Gold price managed to defend the critical short-term support level near $2,505, keeping it in its three-week-long consolidative range.

In Thursday’s trading so far, Gold buyers seem to have fought back control but lack bullish conviction amid persistent US Dollar strength and an upbeat market mood. However, Gold price could draw support from gains in other precious metals and industrial metals, including Palladium, Nickel, etc, in the face of potential export curbs under consideration from Russia.

Also, traders look to a fresh batch of top-tier US economic data due later on Thursday for further hints on the Fed’s policy, eventually impacting the value of the US Dollar and Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: daily chart

Nothing seems to have changed for Gold price from a short-term technical perspective. Buyers continue to stay hopeful as Gold price manages to yield daily closings above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $2,505.  

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat but still holds firm above the 50 level, backing the case for the bullish potential.

Gold buyers yearn for a sustained breakthrough the record high of $2,532, above which the $2,550 psychological level will come into play.

If Gold price faces rejection once again near the $2,530 supply zone, a correction would ensue, with a daily closing below the 21-day SMA at $2,503 needed to negate the bullish outlook in the near term.

A breach of the latter will challenge the previous week’s low of $2,472, followed by the symmetrical triangle resistance-turned-support at $2,462.