$4,200: Back in sight for Gold after Warsh’s silence on interest rate outlook

• Gold turns north toward $4,200 following Fed Chair Warsh’s neutral remarks.
• US Dollar faces renewed selling pressure as an October Fed rate hike is almost priced out.
• The daily RSI remains bearish, and Gold needs to decisively take out $4,200.

Gold is looking to build on its recent recovery, reverting toward $4,200 in the early European hours on Friday, as traders digest US Federal Reserve (Fed) Kevin Warsh’s neutral remarks delivered at the Fireside Chat with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok.

Fed Chair Warsh made no comments on the central bank’s interest-rate hike path and only reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability. He explicitly said that “I don't believe in pre-judging meetings.”

Warsh’s speech scores 5.6/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly below the 6.1/10 historical average, signaling a slightly less impactful tone relative to the established baseline. The admission of being “over-scarred from the global financial crisis” underscores a risk-aware bias even as Warsh stresses structural growth, an investment surge, and upcoming “crystalizing” decisions at the October and December meetings. Emphasis on AI’s demand-side impact, data confidence, and financial stability tail risks points to a forward-looking but cautious stance that keeps the Fed open-minded ahead of year-end policy calls.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a level of 127.51, which remains firmly in hawkish territory. The combination of a flat index reading and a below-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests that while the underlying policy bias stays hawkish, Warsh’s tone today added little incremental hawkish or dovish impulse for Dollar traders.

Markets continue to price in a roughly 22% chance of the Fed standing pat later this month, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Despite hotter-than-expected consumer and factory-gate inflation in the United States (US), the US Dollar (USD) came under fresh selling pressure lower after Warsh’s remark, with Gold attracting dip-buyers from the initial dip to the $4,150 region.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have entered a downside consolidation phase, supporting the bullion’s upside attempt.

However, looming geopolitical risks in the Middle East and elevated Oil prices remain a drag on non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Gold buyers were rescued by a Bloomberg report released on Thursday, stating that China is quietly piling on US Treasuries through non-US custodians, inflating Canada’s holdings to nearly $600 billion.

Looking ahead, Fedspeak, Middle East developments and the end-of-the-week flows will likely drive the Gold price action in the absence of any high-impact US economic releases.

It’s worth noting that the Fed enters the ‘blackout period’ on Saturday before the October 27-28 monetary policy meeting.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,173.86, holding a bearish near-term bias as price remains below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,201.34 and the 100-day SMA at $4,242.23. The metal has retreated from recent highs and is now capped by a dense band of overhead moving-average resistance that includes the 50-day SMA at $4,331.59 and the 200-day SMA at $4,522.21, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 46 hints at subdued bullish momentum within this corrective phase.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,201, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,242 and then the more meaningful barrier at the 50-day SMA around $4,332, ahead of the longer-term cap at the 200-day SMA near $4,522. On the downside, the next notable support emerges at the rising trend-line break area around $4,002, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend if the current pullback extends.