米国CPIと米・イラン平和交渉が迫る中、金の売り手はまだ諦めない

• Gold remains in a familiar range early Friday as all eyes remain on the US CPI data and US-Iran peace talks.  
• The US Dollar finds its feet amid no Israel-Lebanon ceasefire-led and cautious optimism.
• Gold recaptures the 21-day SMA on Thursday with a neutral RSI and an impending Bear Cross.  

Gold remains at a crossroads in Friday’s Asian trades, trying to find a clear direction as markets remain cautiously optimistic ahead of the US inflation report and the US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold buyers cheer the optimism heading into the peace talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan later on Friday, which is keeping the downside cushioned in the bullion.

However, sellers refuse to give up yet, as markets anticipate a surge in the US CPI for March, as the war impact on energy prices will likely be reflected, completely reshaping expectations around the US Fed interest rate outlook.

The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday showed that the policymakers still expect the Fed to resume cutting rates later this year.

If the data suggests any hints of a potential hawkish Fed pivot, the non-yielding Gold could come under intense selling pressure.

On the other hand, if markets ignore higher inflation readings as a one-off amid the Middle East crisis, that could downplay inflation concerns and retain bets for a Fed rate cut this year. This scenario could be the breakout trigger for Gold buyers.

That being said, any reaction to the US inflation data could be limited or countered by the sentiment surrounding the US-Iran peace talks and its likely outcome.

In the meantime, a lack of de-escalation in the Israel-Lebanon conflict keeps investors on edge and the haven bid for the US Dollar intact.

Hence, Gold continues to trade with caution early Friday, with traders refraining from placing fresh directional bets.

日々のテクニカル分析

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,742.85, holding a neutral near‑term bias as spot consolidates between short- and medium-term trend signals. Price remains above the 21-day SMA at $4,692.08 and the 100-day SMA at $4,680.72, which together suggest underlying demand on dips, while staying capped beneath the 50-day SMA at $4,901.95 that limits topside follow-through. The 200-day SMA at $4,178.71 continues to underpin the broader bullish structure, and the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 49.2 reflects balanced momentum with neither buyers nor sellers in clear control.

However, risks appear in favor of the downside as the 21-day SMA is looking to cross the 100-day SMA from above. If that is materialized on a daily closing basis, it will confirm the bearish bias.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,692, followed closely by the 100-day SMA at roughly $4,681, forming a nearby demand band that, if broken, would expose the deeper medium-term floor around the 200-day SMA at $4,179. On the topside, immediate resistance comes at the 50-day SMA around $4,902; a daily close above this barrier would be needed to revive bullish traction and open the way for a more sustained recovery phase.