XAU/USD は、米・イランの不確実性とデッドクロス発生により、下落の様相

• Gold snaps a two-day rebound from seven-month lows, as sellers return in the Nonfarm Payrolls week ahead.
• The US Dollar holds the previous bounce amid renewed Mideast tensions, hawkish Fed bets.
• Gold stays a ‘sell on rise’ trade amid bearish RSI and Death Cross on the daily chart.

Gold kicks off a new week on a bearish note on Monday, after booking a fourth straight weekly loss and snapping a two-day recovery from seven-month lows.

Gold sellers are fighting back control as the US Dollar (USD) remains on track for its biggest monthly gain in nearly a year amid renewed uncertainty over the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran and the prospects of peace talks restarting afresh.

Over the weekend, the US and Iran traded strikes and accused each other of ceasefire violations before they agreed to halt their tit-for-tat attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday for negotiations.

Despite fresh hopes for peace negotiations and the resultant retreat in Oil, markets remain wary and prefer to hold the world’s reserve currency, the USD, at the expense of the bright metal.

Additionally, the non-yielding Gold also bears the brunt of increased bets around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes, with markets expecting at least two hikes by the end of this year.

Later this week, beyond geopolitics, the focus remains on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due on Thursday. The US jobs data is critical to providing hints on the health of the labor market and the scope and timing of the Fed rate hikes.

Gold thrives on lower rates, and hence, Fed policy cues will likely have a significant impact on the bullion.

Ahead of that, the European Central Bank's (ECB) annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, will be closely watched, particularly on Wednesday when the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, will participate in a key policy panel.  This follows a surprisingly hawkish debut from Warsh as the Fed Chair earlier in the month.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,068.30, extending its decline well below the short- and medium-term moving averages and maintaining a bearish near-term bias. Spot is now under the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,240.86 as well as the 50-day SMA at $4,453.85 and the 200-day SMA at $4,479.26, while the longer-term 100-day SMA at $4,674.59 stays far overhead and reinforces the idea of a market capped by layered resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) stands near 36, hinting at persistent bearish pressure but not yet oversold conditions.

Further backing the downside, the yellow metal witnessed a Death Cross confirmation after the 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA on a weekly closing basis on Friday.