Gold rebounds from six-week lows of $4,807 in Thursday’s Asian trades, as the Middle East war enters a new phase.
The US Dollar sees a profit-taking pullback after the Fed’s hawkish hold-led advance.
Technically, Gold closes below key support levels on Wednesday, with more downside likely amid a bearish RSI.
Gold is on a recovery mode from six-week lows of $4,807 reached on Wednesday, as buyers try their luck amid renewed escalation of the Middle East war.
Having lost near 4% on Wednesday, Gold is finding its feet early Thursday, helped by the resurgent demand for the bullion as a traditional safe haven, with the war in the Middle East entering a new phase.
Investors remain wary as Israel and Iran attack energy infrastructure in the region in a tit-for-tat game, as the war deepens.Meanwhile, Reuters reported, citing sources, the Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of additional United States (US) troops to the Middle East.
Additionally, traders resorted to cashing in on their Gold shorts after the bright metal was sold into the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish monetary policy announcements.
However, any upside in Gold appears short-lived as markets continue to assess the Fed’s hawkish hold decision from Wednesday.The Fed held key policy rates steady, as widely expected, with the Dot Plot chart still projecting one rate cut for 2026 and 2027.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone in a press conference, noting that “the forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation.” “In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy., he added.”
Also, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy decisions could have a significant impact on the USD/JPY pair, which could move the USD and in turn, Gold price.
The BoJ is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but the central bank’s outlook on inflation and rate hikes will hold the key and determine the next direction in USD/JPY.
日々のテクニカル分析
The near-term bias turns mildly bearish as price slips below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,105 and pressures the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,858.82, measured from the $4,401.99 low to the $5,597.89 high. The 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs trend higher beneath price, keeping the broader uptrend intact but now serving more as medium-term rather than immediate directional drivers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.45 leans lower but holds above oversold territory, suggesting downside momentum is building without yet signalling capitulation.
Initial resistance emerges at the 38.2% retracement at $4,858.82, with the 50.0% retracement at $4,999.94 reinforcing a stronger barrier aligned with the 21-day SMA overhead. A daily close back above $4,999.94 would ease current bearish pressure and open the path toward the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05. On the downside, immediate support sits around the 23.6% retracement at $4,684.22, followed by the higher-timeframe support cluster from the 50-day SMA around $4,980 down to the 100-day SMA near $4,601, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish structure.
中東戦争の激化で金は反発、しかしまだ危機は脱していない
Gold is on a recovery mode from six-week lows of $4,807 reached on Wednesday, as buyers try their luck amid renewed escalation of the Middle East war.
Having lost near 4% on Wednesday, Gold is finding its feet early Thursday, helped by the resurgent demand for the bullion as a traditional safe haven, with the war in the Middle East entering a new phase.
Investors remain wary as Israel and Iran attack energy infrastructure in the region in a tit-for-tat game, as the war deepens.Meanwhile, Reuters reported, citing sources, the Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of additional United States (US) troops to the Middle East.
Additionally, traders resorted to cashing in on their Gold shorts after the bright metal was sold into the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish monetary policy announcements.
However, any upside in Gold appears short-lived as markets continue to assess the Fed’s hawkish hold decision from Wednesday.The Fed held key policy rates steady, as widely expected, with the Dot Plot chart still projecting one rate cut for 2026 and 2027.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone in a press conference, noting that “the forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress on inflation.” “In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy., he added.”
Also, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy decisions could have a significant impact on the USD/JPY pair, which could move the USD and in turn, Gold price.
The BoJ is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but the central bank’s outlook on inflation and rate hikes will hold the key and determine the next direction in USD/JPY.
日々のテクニカル分析
The near-term bias turns mildly bearish as price slips below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $5,105 and pressures the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,858.82, measured from the $4,401.99 low to the $5,597.89 high. The 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs trend higher beneath price, keeping the broader uptrend intact but now serving more as medium-term rather than immediate directional drivers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.45 leans lower but holds above oversold territory, suggesting downside momentum is building without yet signalling capitulation.
Initial resistance emerges at the 38.2% retracement at $4,858.82, with the 50.0% retracement at $4,999.94 reinforcing a stronger barrier aligned with the 21-day SMA overhead. A daily close back above $4,999.94 would ease current bearish pressure and open the path toward the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05. On the downside, immediate support sits around the 23.6% retracement at $4,684.22, followed by the higher-timeframe support cluster from the 50-day SMA around $4,980 down to the 100-day SMA near $4,601, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader bullish structure.
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中東戦争の激化で金は反発、しかしまだ危機は脱していない
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