中東戦争の拡大でGOLDの下落が再開

• Gold looks to crack $4,400 early Monday after failing once again above the $4,500.
• The US Dollar preserves gains as Middle East war escalates further and rattles markets yet again.   
• Gold remains exposed to downside risks amid bearish RSI and Bear Cross on the daily chart.  

Gold is back in the red early Monday, looking to test the $4,400 level after failing to resist above the $4,500 mark yet again.

Gold sellers fight back control as a new week kicks in, reversing half of Friday’s rebound, as the USD and Oil price strengthen their bullish momentum amid a fresh escalation in the Middle East war.

Markets were already worried about the energy shock-driven higher inflation prospects amid the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, with Yemen’s Iran-backed militant group, Houthis, entering the Middle East war, risks to the Red Sea global trade have intensified.Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend since the war began, raising concerns the conflict could translate into a full-blown regional war.

Citing US officials, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Trump is weighing military operation to extract Iran’s uranium.

Against widening Middle East conflict and increased Federal Reserve expectations, the USD is expected to remain firm against its major currency rivals, boding ill for the USD-denominated Gold.

Looking ahead, Gold could come under renewed selling pressure if the Houthis ramp up attacks on Israel and face Israel’s revenge response. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an expansion of Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon late Sunday as his forces target Hezbollah.

日々のテクニカル分析

The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price remains below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,633, while still holding above the $4,400 level. This configuration shows short-term sellers pressing within a broader uptrend defined by the steadily advancing 100- and 200-day SMAs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.76 stays below the 50 mark and away from oversold territory, indicating persistent but not exhausted bearish momentum.

Immediate resistance emerges at the $4,500 round number, followed by the 100-day SMA around $4,630, where a daily close above the latter would soften the bearish tone and open the way toward the $4,700 area. On the downside, initial support sits near the previous low at $4,375, ahead of the rising 200-day SMA around $4,122.

As long as price trades beneath the short-term averages and RSI holds below 50, rallies are vulnerable to selling into these resistance levels. Adding credence to the bearish outlook, the 21-day and 50-day SMAs Bear Cross confirmed on March 25 remains in play.