ゴールドが重要な100日移動平均線レジスタンスを奪還、今後はどうなる？

• Gold retains recovery bias so far this week, battling $4,700 early Wednesday.
• The US Dollar consolidates losses amid optimism on a de-escalation of the Middle East war
• Gold closed Tuesday above the 100-day SMA of $4,644, but bearish daily RSI cautions buyers.  

Gold is sitting close to eight-day highs of $4,724 early Wednesday amid renewed market optimism on a probable de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, bracing for the US ADP Employment Change data for fresh trading impetus.

The recovery in risk sentiment across the financial markets remains intact so far this week, diminishing the appeal of the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset and the world’s reserve currency, while allowing Gold to reverse heavy losses incurred last month.

US President Donald Trump continued to hint at ending the military operation in Iran, with his latest comments in an NBC News interview, citing that the war will end in two or three weeks.

On the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Trump said, “that’s not for us. That’ll be for France. That’ll be for whoever’s using the Strait.”

Earlier in the week, the US President said that he was willing to end the war without the reopening of the Strait.

The focus now shifts to the key US employment data to gauge whether an interest rate hike by the Fed is likely later this year.

ADP will publish the private sector employment change data later in the day. A reading below the expected 40,000 number could weigh further on the USD, signalling worsening labor market conditions, which could prompt markets to price out a Fed rate hike this year.

The US BLS reported in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report on Tuesday, the number of job openings in the US fell to 6.882 million in February from 7.24 million in January. The reading came in below the market expectation of 6.92 million.

However, the main event this week remains the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due on Good Friday. In the meantime, the development in the Mideast conflict will be closely monitored for further trading impetus in Gold.

日々のテクニカル分析

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,691.40, retaining a corrective bearish bias after the sharp pullback from recent record highs. The spot price holds above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, currently at $4,643.76 and $4,136.73 respectively, which suggests the broader uptrend remains intact even as the metal consolidates lower. However, the loss of the 21-day and 50-day SMAs, now overhead at $4,813.12 and $4,953.40, hints that rallies are likely to face selling interest. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered toward 46.05 from oversold territory but remains below the 50 line, signaling only modest, corrective upside momentum within a still-capped structure.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,813.12, where short-term sellers may look to reassert control, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50-day SMA near $4,953.40. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-day SMA at $4,643.76, with a daily close below this level opening the door toward the more substantial medium-term floor provided by the 200-day SMA at $4,136.73. As long as price trades between these moving-average bands, XAU/USD is likely to remain in a consolidation phase, with the bias tilted lower unless bulls can reclaim the short-term averages.