XAU/USD awaits US CPI inflation for the next big move

• Gold is revisiting the $4,400 level early Wednesday, bracing for the US inflation test.
• The US Dollar sticks to a range amid the US-Iran impasse, higher Oil prices, and receding September Fed rate hike bets.
• Gold’s daily chart points to a test of the 200-day SMA at $4,500 amid bullish RSI.

Gold is back on the bids and looks to regain the $4,400 level in Wednesday’s Asian trading, having found buyers near the $4,350 region. All eyes remain on the high-impact US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could determine if Gold stretches higher or corrects sharply.

Gold has regained its upside momentum, following a brief profit-taking pullback from the ten-week high of $4,435 reached on Tuesday.

Nothing appears to have changed in the fundamental backdrop as the deadlock between the United States (US) and Iran over the talks on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the US and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis’ separate attacks on shipping continues to keep Oil prices and inflation concerns elevated.

However, that fails to deter Gold bulls, as they remain hopeful of another benign inflation report from the US, following the weak Nonfarm Payrolls print for July, which helped markets dial down expectations on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.

At the press time, the odds of a September Fed rate hike stand at a coin-toss level, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, shifting the focus back to the US CPI data release, particularly the core inflation readings, as they are shielded from the war-driven energy swings.

The annual core CPI is seen rising by 2.5% in July, slowing from a 2.6% increase in June. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation is expected to climb to 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in July, following a flat reading in June.

Gold faces two-way risks ahead of the US inflation showdown, with hotter-than-expected core CPI readings likely to ramp up bets on a September Fed rate hike, boosting the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bond yields at the expense of the non-yielding Gold.

On the other hand, softer core prints could provide fresh legs to the bullion’s uptrend, as the data would further reduce bets on Fed rate hikes this year and fuel a USD downtrend.

However, the geopolitical risk premium will continue to remain in play and could leave Gold’s initial reaction to the CPI release short-lived.

According to TD Securities, “precious metals maintain a bid,” with the yellow metal “holding gains, and maintaining CTA length north of $4,400/oz, even as oil prices and rates continue to churn higher.” The firm notes that “recent price action continues to hint at a growing stagflationary theme in the gold market,” adding that while “inflation data and Fed pricing will remain keenly watched, a stronger-than-expected inflation print may be needed to shake the current narrative.”

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,398.04. The metal holds a bullish near-term bias as the spot price remains above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the latter providing nearby trend support around $4,388.40. The 200-day SMA at $4,500.55 looms as the next major upside barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.03 approaches overbought territory, hinting that the latest advance could be losing momentum as it nears that longer-term hurdle.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $4,398.04 area, followed closely by the 100-day SMA at $4,388.40, forming a shallow demand cluster before deeper support emerges at the 50-day SMA near $4,147.80 and the 21-day SMA around $4,133.91. On the topside, a decisive break above the 200-day SMA at $4,500.55 would open the door for a continuation of the broader bullish trend, while failure to clear this level would keep gold confined to a consolidative phase above its short- and medium-term averages.