{"id":24387,"date":"2026-11-06T04:07:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T04:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/?p=24387"},"modified":"2026-11-06T04:07:06","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T04:07:06","slug":"daily-commentary-498","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/daily-commentary-498-20261106\/","title":{"rendered":"XAU\/USD corrects to near $4,060 amid caution ahead of US NFP data"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul style=\"color:#f40307\" class=\"wp-block-list has-text-color\">\n<li><strong>Gold price retreats from $4,147 to near $4,047 ahead of US NFP data for October.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The US Dollar bounces back as investors turn cautious ahead of US labor market report.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>OCBC expects the divided government may constrain fiscal expansion and weigh on US growth.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gold corrects to near $4,047 after failing to extend the United States (US) midterm elections outcome-driven advance above $4,147 on Friday. A strong recovery move in the Gold price from its recent lows of $3,870.25 has been halted as the US Dollar (USD) regains ground, with financial markets turning cautious ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.<\/p>\n<p>As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback\u2019s value against six major currencies, trades 0.13% higher to near 101.70. Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Gold price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.<\/p>\n<p>According to estimates, the US economy is expected to have created 65K new jobs, higher than 29K in September. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.2%.<\/p>\n<p>Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 2.9% Year-on-year (YoY) against 3% in September. On a monthly basis, the wage growth measure is seen rising 0.3% against the previous reading of 0.1%.<\/p>\n<p>The data is expected to have a limited impact on Federal Reserve\u2019s (Fed) interest rate expectations as remarks from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members in last several months have signaled that they are more concerned about prolonged elevated inflation. About employment conditions, members have indicated that the labor demand has remained steady.<\/p>\n<p>Fed\u2019s Logan delivers a distinctly hawkish message on October 30, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8\/10, slightly above the 7.7\/10 historical average and signaling stronger-than-usual tightening bias relative to the established baseline. The insistence that the Fed \u201cneeds at least two more quarter-point rate hikes,\u201d combined with the view that skipping a meeting does not alter the policy destination and that it is \u201cunacceptable\u201d that inflation is not headed back to 2%, underscores a clear commitment to making policy modestly restrictive while using gradual adjustments to limit economic damage and help households, businesses, and investors adapt to higher rates. Logan\u2019s emphasis on strong economic growth, solid consumer spending, balanced-to-tightening labor markets, and supportive financial conditions further validates the case for additional tightening rather than an imminent pivot.<\/p>\n<p>The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.95 points to 143.62, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the above-baseline tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker. This elevated level signals that markets should expect the Dollar to remain supported as investors price in further policy tightening and a prolonged period of restrictive Fed stance.<\/p>\n<p>Gold witnessed a strong buying interest after US Republicans face a setback in midterm elections on Wednesday. Democrats win majority seats in both Houses of Federal law. The victory of Democrats and a likely outcome of divided government prompted fears of tougher regulations on spending in Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure and prolonged shutdown next year.<\/p>\n<p>Strategists at OCBC highlight those precious metals \u201crebounded sharply following the US midterm elections, supported by a softer USD, lower US Treasury yields and oil prices as markets reassessed the implications of political gridlock for US fiscal policy and growth.\u201d In their view, the shift in the political landscape has helped ease concerns over aggressive fiscal expansion, with \u201cexpectations that political gridlock may constrain fiscal expansion and weigh on US growth\u201d offering \u201csome relief to yields,\u201d while \u201cslippage in oil prices also lent support.\u201d Against this backdrop, OCBC notes that \u201cGold rallied around 3%, reclaiming the 4000 level,\u201d underscoring how the metal has responded to the more favourable macro mix of a weaker Dollar, lower yields and softer energy prices.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"430\" src=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/gold-chart-2026-11-06-1024x430.png\" alt=\"Gold Technical Analysis\" class=\"wp-image-24388\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/gold-chart-2026-11-06-1024x430.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/gold-chart-2026-11-06-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/gold-chart-2026-11-06-768x323.png 768w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/gold-chart-2026-11-06-1536x645.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/gold-chart-2026-11-06-18x8.png 18w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/gold-chart-2026-11-06.png 1702w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>In the daily chart, XAU\/USD trades at $4,047.83, keeping a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains capped by the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,064.36. Price action holds just under this dynamic barrier, suggesting topside attempts are still vulnerable, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 46.82 stays below the midline and hints at lacking bullish conviction rather than outright selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p>On the topside, immediate resistance is the November 5 high at $4,147, followed by $4,200. Looking down, the recent low of $3,870.25 will be the key support level.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold price retreats from $4,147 to near $4,047 ahead of US NFP data for October. The US Dollar bounces back as investors turn cautious ahead of US labor market report. OCBC expects the divided government may constrain fiscal expansion and weigh on US growth. Gold corrects to near $4,047 after failing to extend the United States (US) midterm elections outcome-driven advance above $4,147 on Friday. A strong recovery move in the Gold price from its recent lows of $3,870.25 has been halted as the US Dollar (USD) regains ground, with financial markets turning cautious ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/daily-commentary-498-20261106\/\" class=\"more-link\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;XAU\/USD corrects to near $4,060 amid caution ahead of US NFP data&#8221; \u306e<\/span>\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24387"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24387\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24389,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24387\/revisions\/24389"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/ja\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}