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Maxain Morning Analysis 10/09/2024

EUR/USD

Trend Theme:EUR/USD slips as ECB rate cut expectations weigh, drops below 1.1100

Trend Review:

EUR/USD extends losses after clearing 1.1100 support, with ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps on September 12.Market sentiment remains cautious as analysts anticipate the ECB to revise economic growth and inflation projections downward.US CPI report this week could influence Fed rate cut expectations, with 70% odds for a 25 bps cut and 30% for 50 bps.

Today Advise:Bullish

Key Levels:

PPResistance*1.1073*1.1110**1.1130***
1.1053Support*1.1015*1.0996**1.0958***

Weekly forecast

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USD/JPY

Trend Theme:USD/JPY steadily climbs back closer to mid-143.00s, upside potential seems limited

Trend Review:

USD/JPY ticks higher for the second straight day and draws support from a combination of factors.A downward revision of Japan’s GDP print and a positive risk tone undermines the safe-haven JPY.Reduced bets for a 50 bps Fed rate cut in September push the USD higher and further lend support.

Today Advise:Bullish

Key Levels:

PPResistance*144.00*144.82**145.84***
142.98Support*142.16*141.14**140.32***

Weekly forecast

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WTI

Trend Theme:Oil prices rebound as hurricane approaches US Gulf Coast, but Morgan Stanley cuts price forecast, eyes on OPEC monthly report

Trend Review:

International oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range, with U.S. crude oil currently trading around $68.75 per barrel. Oil prices rose by about 1% on Monday as the market worried that the hurricane expected to hit Louisiana on Wednesday would disrupt oil production and refining along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Today Advise:Bullish

Key Levels:

PPResistance*68.80*69.36**70.35***
67.80Support*67.24*66.25**65.69***

Weekly forecast

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XAU/USD

Trend Theme:Gold surges above $2,500 ahead of US CPI as Fed rate cut looms

Trend Review:

Gold gains ground despite broad US Dollar strength, traders focus on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.CME FedWatch Tool shows 73% odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut, shifting from previous speculation of a 50 bps move.US Treasury yields remain stable, while traders await further clues on inflation trends and the Fed’s rate path.

Today Advise:Bullish

Key Levels:

PPResistance*2513.85*2521.30**2535.40***
2499.75Support*2492.30*2478.20**2470.75***

Weekly forecast

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