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Maxain Morning Analysis 30/09/2024

EUR/USD

Trend Theme:EUR/USD moves above 1.1150 due to rising odds for the Fed’s aggressive rate-cutting cycle

Trend Review:

EUR/USD gains ground as the Fed is expected to continue its policy easing in November.CME FedWatch Tool suggests 42.9% odds of a 25 basis point rate cut and 57.1% odds of a 50 basis point cut in November.Lower inflation in France and Spain has increased the likelihood of the ECB’s rate cut in October.

Today Advise:Sideways

Key Levels:

PPResistance*1.1203*1.1242**1.1281***
1.1164Support*1.1125*1.1086**1.1047***

Weekly forecast

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USD/JPY

Trend Theme:USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on modest intraday gains, up a little around mid-142.00s

Trend Review:

USD/JPY kicks off the new week on a positive note and stalls Friday’s pullback from a multi-week top.The upbeat market mood, Japan’s politics and mixed data from Japan undermine the safe-haven JPY. The divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations keep a lid on any further appreciating move for the pair. 

Today Advise:Bearish

Key Levels:

PPResistance*145.11*148.02**149.54***
143.59Support*140.68*139.16**136.26***

Weekly forecast

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WTI

Trend Theme:Crude oil trading reminder: Israel “shoots from both sides” to support oil prices, but we still need to pay attention to changes in supply outlook expectations

Trend Review:

International oil prices fluctuated slightly lower, with U.S. crude oil currently trading around $68.28 per barrel. Oil prices closed slightly higher on Friday, but fell more than 3% on a weekly basis as investors assessed expectations of increased global supply and new stimulus measures from the largest crude oil importer, the Asian giant.

Today Advise:Sideways

Key Levels:

PPResistance*68.97*69.50**70.55***
67.93Support*67.39*66.35**65.82***

Weekly forecast

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XAU/USD

Trend Theme:Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges higher above $2,650 as traders brace for Chinese PMI data

Trend Review:

Gold price drifts higher to $2,665 in Monday’s early Asian session. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Fed rate cuts support the Gold price. Investors await the Chinese PMI, which is due on Monday. 

Today Advise:Sideways

Key Levels:

PPResistance*2674.09*2689.78**2705.23***
2658.64Support*2642.95*2627.50**2611.81***

Weekly forecast

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