{"id":24327,"date":"2026-10-19T05:36:59","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T05:36:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/?p=24327"},"modified":"2026-10-19T05:36:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T05:36:59","slug":"daily-commentary-485","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/daily-commentary-485-20261019\/","title":{"rendered":"$4,200 remains a tough nut to crack for Gold bulls"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul style=\"color:#f40307\" class=\"wp-block-list has-text-color\">\n<li><strong>Gold keeps struggling under $4,200 despite a stronger-than-expected Chinese data dump.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>US Dollar finds dip-buyers, despite falling US yields and Oil prices, amid European civil unrest.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>The daily RSI remains bearish and the 21-day SMA continues to check Gold\u2019s recovery.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gold\u00a0is struggling to sustain the renewed uptick, remaining below $4,200 in Monday\u2019s Asian trades. The bright metal is torn between dip-buying in the US Dollar (USD) and renewed geopolitical optimism, which has sent Oil prices southward.<\/p>\n<p>Despite fresh attempts to resume last week\u2019s recovery from weekly troughs of $4,074, Gold seems to lack bullish conviction as the USD draws support from broad weakness in the Euro (EUR) amid civil unrest spreading across the European Union (EU).<\/p>\n<p>On Saturday, France witnessed one of the most violent days of unrest in years, leaving public buildings burned, hundreds of shops destroyed and looted and at least 2,400 people arrested in cities across the country, per The Guardian.<\/p>\n<p>The French protests spread to Lisbon, Portugal, and Milan, Italy, as tensions over housing and living costs intensify. Italy\u2019s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, said that while demonstrating was a right, \u201csetting our cities ablaze is not\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, falling US Treasury bond yields and Oil prices continue to pressure the Greenback, limiting its upside and thereby keeping Gold bulls hopeful.<\/p>\n<p>After US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh\u2019s silence on the central bank\u2019s interest rate path, an October rate hike is almost priced out, which weighs negatively on the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, supporting the non-yielding bullion.<\/p>\n<p>Warsh delivered a moderately constructive but cautious message, with a 5.6\/10 FXS Speechtracker score that is slightly softer relative to the historical average of 6.1\/10, underscoring a less forceful tone than usual. The acknowledgment of being \u201cover-scarred\u201d by the Global Financial Crisis highlights a persistent risk-averse bias even as Warsh emphasizes structural growth and an investment surge driven by \u201cgood policies,\u201d suggesting no rush to pre-commit ahead of the October and December meetings. Warsh\u2019s focus on AI as a near-term demand catalyst with uncertain employment effects, alongside plans for an AI field hearing and new Fed task forces, points to a central bank that sees technology as both a support for data-dependent policy and a potential source of new tail risks.<\/p>\n<p>The retreat in Oil prices from monthly highs, after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy to keep Moscow in Ukraine peace talks, eases inflation fears and Fed tightening expectations.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s waiver on Russian energy offset an Iranian report that a tanker exploded after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy\u00a0has become increasingly critical of Trump\u2019s actions as the US has piled pressure on Ukraine to cease striking refineries in Russia and end the war quickly on Putin\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n<p>Gold is also holding ground following a slew of upbeat Chinese economic activity data. China\u2019s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 4.5% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter from 4.3% prior, beating estimates for 4.4% growth.<\/p>\n<p>The country\u2019s annual Retail Sales and Industrial Production climbed 1.1% and 5.5%, respectively, in September, exceeding market expectations. Note that China is the world\u2019s largest Gold consumer.<\/p>\n<p>Against fresh optimism on the geopolitical front and strong Chinese data, Gold traders will likely pay close attention to the civil crisis in Europe and USD price action, as the US economic docket remains data-empty on Monday amid the Fed\u2019s \u2018blackout period\u2019 before the October 27-28 monetary policy meeting.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-19-1024x390.png\" alt=\"Gold Technical Analysis\" class=\"wp-image-24328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-19-1024x390.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-19-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-19-768x292.png 768w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-19-1536x585.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-19-18x7.png 18w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-19.png 1647w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>In the daily chart, XAU\/USD trades at $4,176.14, holding beneath a dense band of moving average resistance that keeps the near-term bias tilted lower. Spot is currently capped by the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $4,191, with the 100-day SMA higher near $4,239 and the 50-day SMA even further overhead around $4,327, all reinforcing a corrective tone after the recent pullback. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 46 sits just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at subdued bullish momentum and suggesting that rallies may struggle while price remains under these key averages.<\/p>\n<p>On the downside, the next meaningful technical cushion emerges toward the prior rising trend-line break zone around $4,000, where buyers may attempt to rebuild a floor if selling pressure resumes. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,191, followed by the 100-day SMA at about $4,239; a daily close above these would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure, while a sustained move through the 50-day SMA at $4,327 would start to undermine the current corrective phase, with the longer-term 200-day SMA higher up at $4,520 acting as a major cap for the broader uptrend.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold keeps struggling under $4,200 despite a stronger-than-expected Chinese data dump. US Dollar finds dip-buyers, despite falling US yields and Oil prices, amid European civil unrest. The daily RSI remains bearish and the 21-day SMA continues to check Gold\u2019s recovery. Gold\u00a0is struggling to sustain the renewed uptick, remaining below $4,200 in Monday\u2019s Asian trades. The &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/daily-commentary-485-20261019\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u0e2d\u0e48\u0e32\u0e19\u0e40\u0e1e\u0e34\u0e48\u0e21\u0e40\u0e15\u0e34\u0e21<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;$4,200 remains a tough nut to crack for Gold bulls&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24327"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24327\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24329,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24327\/revisions\/24329"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/th\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}