XAU/USD hồi phục nhưng chưa thoát khỏi nguy hiểm

• Gold holds the rebound above $4,300 early Tuesday after hitting three-month lows at $4,269.
• The US Dollar eases amid doubts over the Mideast truce situation, traders cash in ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI.
• Gold is trying hard to build on the previous rebound from three-month lows of $4,269, holding above the $4,300 level in Asia on Tuesday.

Gold is trying hard to build on the previous rebound from three-month lows of $4,269, holding above the $4,300 level in Asia on Tuesday.

Gold is seeing a dead cat bounce as the US Dollar (USD) pulls back from around two-month highs against its major currency peers amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Iran and Israel halted strikes on each other on Monday after an appeal from US President Donald Trump. Still, tensions remain high as Tehran threatened to resume strikes if Israel continued to hit Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

That being said, Gold keeps facing headwinds from increased bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates by the end of this year, with markets pricing about 70% chance of such a move in December, as per the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Hawkish Fed expectations should limit any downside in the Greenback, leaving the rebound in the Gold price tentative, while markets eagerly await fresh developments in the Gulf war.

However, if traders resort to profit-taking on their USD longs ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due for release on Wednesday, Gold’s recovery could find further legs.

On the other hand, if the Iran-Israel attacks restart, it could fuel a fresh uptick in the Greenback at the expense of the bright metal.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,340.25, extending a bearish bias as spot remains below all its tracked moving averages. Price is capped first by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,441.13, with the 21-day SMA at $4,509.09 and the 50-day SMA at $4,620.62 reinforcing a heavy layer of overhead supply, while the 100-day SMA at $4,789.24 anchors the broader downbeat structure. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits near 35, pointing to lingering negative momentum but not yet fully oversold, which hints that sellers still retain control, albeit with some risk of interim pauses.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-day SMA around $4,441, where a daily close above would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure. Further up, the 21-day SMA near $4,509 and the 50-day SMA around $4,621 form a secondary barrier ahead of the 100-day SMA at roughly $4,789, which guards the higher bearish threshold. No clear support levels are defined by the provided moving averages, leaving gold vulnerable to fresh downside extension until new price-based floors emerge on the chart.