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• Gold keeps falling as a new week sets in, hitting two-month lows below $4,350.
• The US Dollar gains traction with US Treasury yields as Middle East war spurs inflation fears and rate hike bets.
• Gold cracks the February 2 low of $4,402, but oversold RSI warrants caution for sellers.

Gold is down roughly 3% in Monday’s Asian trades, extending the previous week’s more than 10% loss as multiple support levels crumble.

Gold sellers appear unstoppable so far, as the bright metal continues to feel the heat from renewed buying in the USD and the US Treasury bond yields as the Middle East war enters a new phase of escalation.

Gold keeps facing a double whammy, with reduced appeal as a safe-haven asset amid the USD’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency. A stronger Greenback makes dollar-priced bullion less attractive to holders of other currencies.

Meanwhile, a fresh escalation of the conflict rekindled concerns over energy supply disruption and inflationary risks, bolstering bets for global interest rate hikes. This, in turn, drives US Treasury bond yields higher, weighing negatively on the non-yielding Gold.

IEA Chief Fatih Birol warned that the world is losing 11m barrels of oil per day, more than the 1973 and 1979 energy shocks combined.

Markets got rattled once again after the US and Iran traded escalating threats over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting civilian and energy infrastructure, while Israel planned for “weeks” more fighting,In the opening trades on Monday, the Jerusalem Post reported, citing sources that the US is considering launching a ground military operation to seize the Iranian island of Kharg.

Should the tit-for-tat materialize from the US and Iran, a wave of broader market sell-off will kick in, exacerbating the pain in Gold. Such a scenario will likely prompt traders to liquidate their Gold positions to cover losses elsewhere.

However, Gold could find some respite if a technical rebound is initiated as the daily RSI remains in the oversold territory, well below the 30 level.

Phân tích kỹ thuật hàng ngày

The near-term bias turns bearish as price extends a sharp decline below the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), signaling a break from the prior uptrend structure. The 21-day SMA has rolled over and now caps from above near $5,035, while the 50-day SMA weakens around $4,970, reinforcing downside pressure. The spot also trades well above the still-rising 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered around $4,610 and $4,095, framing this move as an aggressive correction within a broader uptrend. The RSI slides to 26, entering oversold territory and flagging stretched bearish momentum.

Initial resistance now stands at the recent breakdown area around $4,650, with stronger resistance at the 21-day SMA near $5,035, where any rebound would confront the short-term downshift in trend. A daily close above that level would expose the 50-day SMA near $4,970 as the next hurdle and would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure. On the downside, the current price zone near $4,360 is the first line of support, with further declines opening the way toward the psychological $4,300 area, where proximity to the rising 100-day SMA could attract dip-buying interest. If this region fails to hold, focus would turn toward the medium-term base implied by the 200-day SMA near $4,095, which marks a critical support zone for the broader bullish structure.