Vàng có phá vỡ được ngưỡng kháng cự SMA 100 ngày quan trọng không?

• Gold extends recovery for the third straight day, but eyes the worst month in over 17 years.  
• The US Dollar winning streak stalls amid unwinding and repositioning as the March quarter ends.
• Gold could run into stiff resistance at the 100-day SMA of $4,637 as the daily RSI remains bearish.   

Gold has regained recovery momentum to retest $4,600 in Asian trades on Tuesday, after having defended the $4,400 level.

The latest leg up in Gold is mainly driven by a return of risk appetite, which snaps the winning streak in the US Dollar against its major competitors.

The recovery in risk sentiment could be attributed to renewed optimism of de-escalation of the Middle East war after a Wall Street Journal report stated that US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

Additionally, the above forecasts Chinese official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data for March, despite the geopolitical tensions, help revive appetite for riskier assets, denting the appeal of the Greenback as a safe-haven asset.

Additionally, USD traders are looking to cash in on their recent long positions heading into the March quarter end, leading to profit-taking in the buck and lifting Gold price further north.

Gold also draws support from the latest comments by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. During his public appearance on Monday, Powell signalled that long-term inflation expectations in the US remain under control, even as geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to roil global markets.

Despite the recent recovery from four-month lows of $4,099, the bright metal is on track to book the worst month in over 17 years as the energy shock-driven higher inflation projections priced out a Fed interest rate cut this year. Gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment.

In the day ahead, Gold could see further upside if the end-of-the-quarter flows pick up steam. However, markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East war for fresh trading impetus in Gold.

Phân tích kỹ thuật hàng ngày

The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price remains below the 100-day SMA near $4,637, while still defending the $4,400 level. This configuration shows short-term sellers pressing within a broader uptrend defined by the steadily advancing 100- and 200-day SMAs. The RSI at 40.90 stays below the 50 mark and away from oversold territory, indicating persistent but not exhausted bearish momentum.

Immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around $4,637, where a daily close above the latter would soften the bearish tone and open the way toward the $4,700 area. On the downside, initial support sits near the previous low at $4,420, ahead of the $4,350 demand area and the rising 200-day SMA around $4,129.

As long as price trades beneath the short-term averages and RSI holds below 50, rallies are vulnerable to selling into these resistance levels. Adding credence to the bearish outlook, the 21-day and 50-day SMAs Bear Cross confirmed on March 25 remains in play.