{"id":24314,"date":"2026-10-12T04:34:50","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T04:34:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/?p=24314"},"modified":"2026-10-12T04:34:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T04:34:50","slug":"daily-commentary-481","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/daily-commentary-481-20261012\/","title":{"rendered":"XAU\/USD buyers retain control as the US CPI week begins"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul style=\"color:#f40307\" class=\"wp-block-list has-text-color\">\n<li><strong>Gold is extending the previous week\u2019s advance into early Monday, recapturing $4,200.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>US Dollar bounces amid Middle East tensions, shrugging off softer Treasury yields and falling Oil prices.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Technically, the daily bearish RSI continues to caution Gold buyers aiming for the 100-day SMA at $4,256.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gold\u00a0is extending its recovery from a two-month low of $4,067 into a new week on Monday, trying to remain above the $4,200 level amid a pause in the US Dollar (USD) retreat from an 18-month peak.<\/p>\n<p>The USD stages a tepid bounce, threatening Gold\u2019s advance above $4,200, as traders continue to weigh the weekend\u2019s escalation in the Middle East conflict.<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia\u2019s King Khalid International Airport came under attack again a day after 12 were killed in alleged Houthi strikes.\u00a0Houthis also claimed an attack on Saudi&#x27;s Dammam airport and Aramco sites in the eastern part of the kingdom, Reuters reported. Saudi Arabia has not yet confirmed this report.<\/p>\n<p>US President Donald Trump said that he is considering joining Saudi Arabia in its retaliation against Tehran-backed Yemeni Houthis.<\/p>\n<p>Separately, Secretary of Iran\u2019s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said Washington has accepted some of Tehran\u2019s conditions for an agreement, but its response remains \u201cinadequate\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>However, Oil prices pay little heed to the Middle East developments, incurring steep losses on hopes of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire and receding supply risks.<\/p>\n<p>Trump claimed Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an \u201cenergy ceasefire\u201d; however, Ukraine\u2019s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he was not aware of an \u201cenergy ceasefire\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>This followed Friday\u2019s announcement that the US lifted sanctions on the sale of Russian diesel in global markets until April next year.<\/p>\n<p>The recent retreat in Oil prices has somewhat eased inflation worries, providing some respite to global bond markets. Softer US Treasury bond yields and falling oil prices counter the renewed USD uptick, keeping the non-yielding bullion supported.<\/p>\n<p>But the bright metal remains poised for wild swings amid thin liquidity as US bond markets and Japanese markets remain closed on Monday.<\/p>\n<p>Also, buyers could turn cautious, with the focus shifting to Wednesday\u2019s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, especially after the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) disappointment and a dip in US Consumer Sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>The inflation report is one of the last major economic releases before the US Federal Reserve&#x27;s (Fed) monetary policy meeting due later this month. Traders are pricing in an 83% chance of the Fed on hold this month, up from 51% a month earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed.<\/p>\n<p>According to TD Securities, September core CPI is expected to &quot;moderate to 0.20% m\/m,&quot; with the slowdown &quot;led by supercore at 0.24% after August inflation was pushed up by the segment.&quot; The bank anticipates that &quot;core goods will likely pick up slightly due to vehicle prices,&quot; while &quot;shelter inflation should rebound slightly higher after a weak August.&quot; On this basis, TD Securities notes that its forecast &quot;would result in y\/y core CPI going sideways at 2.4%,&quot; but it also highlights &quot;risks to the upside, with the potential for more strength from discretionary services or AI-related goods.&quot;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-12-1024x390.png\" alt=\"Gold Technical Analysis\" class=\"wp-image-24315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-12-1024x390.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-12-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-12-768x292.png 768w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-12-1536x585.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-12-18x7.png 18w, https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gold-chart-2026-10-12.png 1647w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>In the daily chart, XAU\/USD trades at $4,205.00, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below a stack of key moving averages. Price remains under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,256 and the 50-day SMA around $4,338, while the longer-term 200-day SMA up at roughly $4,529 reinforces a capped broader tone. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 47 sits just below the neutral midline, hinting at subdued upside momentum after the recent slide.<\/p>\n<p>On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 100-day SMA near $4,256, with the 50-day SMA at about $4,338 acting as the next hurdle before the more distant 200-day SMA around $4,529 comes into play. On the downside, the key structural reference is the prior rising trend-line support around $4,002, which now stands as the main medium-term floor; a decisive break beneath that area would likely open the door to a deeper corrective phase.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold is extending the previous week\u2019s advance into early Monday, recapturing $4,200. US Dollar bounces amid Middle East tensions, shrugging off softer Treasury yields and falling Oil prices. Technically, the daily bearish RSI continues to caution Gold buyers aiming for the 100-day SMA at $4,256. Gold\u00a0is extending its recovery from a two-month low of $4,067 &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/daily-commentary-481-20261012\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cXAU\/USD buyers retain control as the US CPI week begins\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":17233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24314"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24316,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24314\/revisions\/24316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.maxainasia.com\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}