繼中東戰事重燃，XAU/USD 恐面臨更多跌勢

• Gold hangs close to three-month lows at $4,300 early Monday, following Friday’s 3.25% sell-off.
• The US Dollar Index holds above 100.00 amid renewed Mideast tensions and Fed rate hike bets.
• Gold closed below the key 200-day SMA last week; a test of the $4,250 area remains in sight.

Gold is licking its wounds, hanging close to three-month lows of $4,300 in Asia on Monday. The bright metal is consolidating before resuming Friday’s sell-off amid re-escalation in the Middle East and hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

Despite a tepid bounce, Gold remains exposed to downside risks in light of the recent technical breakdown and as hostilities anew between Israel and Iran.

On Sunday, Israel launched strikes in the Beirut area for the first time since the US announced a ceasefire for Lebanon last week, which Hezbollah outrightly rejected.

Iran retaliated with strikes on Israel, citing the US’s continued naval blockade and Israel’s attack on Beirut as a violation of the ceasefire agreed between Tehran and Washington.

Since then, Israel and Iran have traded strikes, flaring up hostilities again in the Mideast, even though US President Donald Trump urged the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to immediately retaliate over Iran’s earlier missile launches against Israel, per several media reports.

Additionally, there are reports that both Iran and Yemen are launching missiles toward Israel.

Fresh escalation in the Middle East war boosts oil prices and exacerbates pain in Gold, with the bullion already reeling from the pain induced by the blockbuster US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report published on Friday.

The headline NFP increased by 172,000 jobs in May vs. 85,000 additional jobs expected, while the March and April payroll gains were revised up by 93,000. The Unemployment Rate held at 4.3% for a third consecutive month.

Markets are now pricing in about 70% probability that the Fed will hike interest rates by the end of this year, up from slightly over 50% pre-NFP release, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The US labor market resilience and the Oil price surge-led inflationary concerns serve as a perfect recipe for Gold’s heightened bearish momentum.

Looking ahead, Gold traders pay close attention to the Middle East developments and looming Japanese intervention risks as the USD/JPY pair re-approaches the 160.50 level, from where the official intervened in late April.

All in all, volatility is set to remain high in the bright metal going forward, with sellers likely to flex their muscles and ‘sell-the-rally’ trades to dominate.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,307.05, extending a bearish bias as spot remains entrenched beneath all its major moving averages. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4,526.82, the 50-day SMA near $4,623.59, the 100-day SMA at $4,792.32 and even the longer-term 200-day SMA at $4,436.55 all sit overhead, reinforcing a downside-skewed structure despite the Relative Strength Index (14) slipping toward the lower 30s and hinting at emerging oversold conditions rather than a confirmed reversal.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 200-day SMA at $4,436.55, with the 21-day SMA at $4,526.82 and the 50-day SMA at $4,623.59 forming a subsequent cap, while the 100-day SMA higher up at $4,792.32 marks a more distant barrier. With no nearby moving-average support in place below spot, the metal remains vulnerable to further downside until buyers can at least reclaim the 200-day SMA and start easing the heavy technical tone.