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Eyes on Death Cross and $3,950 support for XAU/USD

  • Gold sellers return early Friday, with eyes on $3,950, despite easing Fed rate hike bets.
  • The US Dollar catches a fresh haven bid amid global risk aversion and Hormuz tensions.
  • Gold awaits Death Cross confirmation as RSI returns to the bearish zone on the daily chart.

Gold is back in the red near $4,000 early Friday, snapping a brief rebound seen on Wednesday, and eyes a fourth straight weekly loss.

Gold is struggling to resist above the $4,000 mark as the downside resumes amid the revival of the haven demand for the US Dollar (USD).

Risk aversion remains at full steam in Asia, tracking the Wall Street sell-off overnight, where investors bore the brunt of the Apple-led Magnificent Seven titans announcing price hikes for their products, citing rising costs.

Further, a likely delay in the OpenAI Initial Public Offering (IPO) and renewed tensions erupting in the Strait of Hormuz are weighing on investors’ sentiment, offering a fresh lift to the Greenback.

A cargo ship was damaged by an unknown projectile off Oman's coast in Hormuz. A White House official said that the US was looking into which party was responsible for the strike, including whether it was an action ordered by high levels of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or a rogue decision by lower-level personnel.

On Thursday, Gold received a brief reprieve and staged a tepid bounce from near seven-month lows of $3,959 after traders cashed in on their short positions after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, came in slightly lower than expected in May.

Markets pared back bets for at least two interest rate hikes this year. That fuelled a broad US Dollar pullback and allowed Gold to briefly rebound.

Looking ahead, Gold remains vulnerable amid bearish technicals and uncertainty over a safe transit via the Strait of Hormuz. Looming concerns over the durability of the US-Iran peace agreement also keep Gold buyers on edge.

Gold Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,005.08, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot remains decisively below the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which all act as overhead supply. The 21-day SMA (4,259.23) is the nearest cap, while the 50-day and 200-day SMAs clustered around $4,470 reinforce a broader downside tone, and the longer-term 100-day SMA at $4,682.60 adds to the heavy structure above price. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 31.72 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting at stretched downside momentum but not yet signaling a confirmed recovery.

Adding credence to the bearish potential, sellers need the 50-day SMA to yield a daily closing below the 200-day SMA, which, if confirmed on Friday, would validate a Death Cross.

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