XAU/USD defends $4,100, but for how long?

• Gold is back in the red early Tuesday, having faced rejection once again at $4,200.
• The US Dollar holds at yearly highs amid hawkish Fed outlook, scepticism over US-Iran deal progress.
• Gold is primed to attack $4,100 as the daily technical setup remains in favor of sellers.

Gold is resuming its downside momentum toward $4,100 early Tuesday, following a temporary reversal seen a day ago.

Gold sellers continue to lurk at around the $4,200 mark, keeping the bearish bias well in place, despite some progress between the United States (US) and Iran toward a peace deal.

“US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iranian officials in Switzerland had laid a good foundation for a final peace deal, although Iran denied that it had begun discussions of its nuclear programme,” per Reuters.

Against this backdrop and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, investors remain sceptical about the progress in the peace negotiations, which could turn south any time amid potential verbal threats from US President Donald Trump.

Therefore, investors continue to run for cover in the US Dollar (USD), keeping the buck at its highest level in over a year against its six major currency rivals.

The Greenback also derives its strength from increased bets around a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike by the end of this year.

Markets price in an 88% chance of a rate hike in December, up from 61% before the Fed meeting last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The broad USDF strength and hawkish Fed expectations leave the non-yielding bullion at risk of further downside.

Later in the day, the US S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data will be published, which could strengthen Fed hike bets, fuelling a fresh leg down in Gold.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is seen falling slightly to 54.7 in June from 55.1 in May, while the Services PMI is expected to tick up to 51 in the same period from 50.7 in May.

Besides, Fedspeak and the US-Iran headlines will continue to play a pivotal role in driving risk sentiment and the Gold price action.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,136.00, extending a bearish phase as spot holds below all key simple moving averages (SMA). The 21-day SMA at $4,328.42 leads initial overhead pressure, with the medium-term 200-day and 50-day SMAs clustered higher at $4,471.81 and $4,515.31, respectively, reinforcing a capped tone. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 35.76 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that while downside momentum persists, the sell-off is losing some intensity rather than accelerating.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,328, where a daily close above would be needed to ease immediate pressure and open the way toward the 200-day SMA at roughly $4,472. A more meaningful bullish reprieve would require reclaiming the 50-day SMA at around $4,515, with the 100-day SMA much higher at about $4,709 acting as a broader trend barrier. With no clear SMA-based support levels below spot from the provided data, the metal remains vulnerable to further declines while it trades beneath this layered resistance zone.