GOLD looks to US NFP, US-Iran headlines for next push higher

• Gold rebounds toward 12-day highs of $4,765 on Nonfarm Payrolls Day, following Thursday’s late pullback.
• The US Dollar consolidates the recovery amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, while awaiting a potential peace deal.
• Gold turns into a ‘buy-the-dip’ trade after the falling wedge breakout but US NFP holds the key.

Gold is back on the bid early Friday, regaining traction above $4,700 as markets remain hopeful for a potential US-Iran peace deal in the countdown to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.

Despite Thursday’s hostilities, reassurances from the United States (US) and Iran toward a continued ceasefire bring a sigh of relief to Asian markets and curb the renewed haven demand for the US Dollar (USD). This, in turn, offers a fresh impetus to Gold buyers.

Both the warring nations traded strikes in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, challenging a fragile month-long ceasefire.

That being said, markets remain optimistic about a likely peace deal as Iran reviews Washington’s proposal to end the war.

Beyond geopolitics, the next decisive move in Gold could be sponsored by the US jobs data, including the all-important NFP print. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is struggling to balance its dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment.

Economists are expecting the headline NFP to increase by 62,000 in April after recording a blockbuster 178,000 job gain in March. The Unemployment Rate is likely to hold steady at 4.3% in the same period.

The employment data will be closely scrutinized to know “whether the US economy remains resilient enough to keep the Fed’s monetary policy on hold, or whether a softening labor market could revive the case for rate cuts,” per Reuters.

Daily technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,713.59. The metal is attempting to stabilize above the short-term 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,697.84 and the reclaimed downward trend-line around $4,569, which together suggest a modestly constructive undertone, especially after Gold closed Wednesday above the descending trendline resistance, then near $4,595, confirming an upside break from a falling wedge pattern.

Momentum is neutral to mildly positive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 52, hinting that directional conviction is still limited while price consolidates between underlying support and nearby moving-average resistance.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered in the $4,778–4,780 region, where the 100-day SMA at $4,778.05 and the 50-day SMA at $4,780.21 converge, and a daily close above this band would be needed to reopen the way toward higher highs. On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent pivot near $4,713, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,697.84; a break below there would expose the former trend-line barrier turned support around $4,569, while only a deeper slide toward the distant 200-day SMA near $4,314 would materially damage the medium-term bullish structure.